{
  "id": "us-budget-forecast-vs-actual",
  "name": "US Budget Forecast vs Actual Surplus/Deficit",
  "title": "US Budget Forecast vs Actual Surplus/Deficit",
  "description": "US federal budget surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP, pairing each budget year's actual outcome against the forecast made in that same year (1980–2015), showing systematic optimism bias in official projections.",
  "category": "finance",
  "source": "https://github.com/vega/vega-datasets",
  "source_url": "https://github.com/vega/vega-datasets",
  "updated": "2026-04",
  "record_count": 230,
  "columns": [
    {
      "key": "budgetYear",
      "label": "BudgetYear",
      "type": "number"
    },
    {
      "key": "forecastYear",
      "label": "ForecastYear",
      "type": "number"
    },
    {
      "key": "value",
      "label": "Value",
      "type": "number"
    }
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "budgetYear": 1980,
      "forecastYear": 1980,
      "value": -0.103
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1980,
      "forecastYear": 1981,
      "value": -0.037
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1980,
      "forecastYear": 1982,
      "value": 0.01
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1980,
      "forecastYear": 1983,
      "value": 0.051
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1981,
      "forecastYear": 1980,
      "value": -0.192
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1981,
      "forecastYear": 1981,
      "value": -0.129
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1981,
      "forecastYear": 1982,
      "value": -0.06
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1981,
      "forecastYear": 1983,
      "value": -0.017
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1981,
      "forecastYear": 1984,
      "value": 0.063
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1982,
      "forecastYear": 1981,
      "value": -0.185
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1982,
      "forecastYear": 1982,
      "value": -0.215
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1982,
      "forecastYear": 1983,
      "value": -0.19
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1982,
      "forecastYear": 1984,
      "value": -0.164
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1982,
      "forecastYear": 1985,
      "value": -0.137
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1983,
      "forecastYear": 1982,
      "value": -0.28
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1983,
      "forecastYear": 1983,
      "value": -0.432
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1983,
      "forecastYear": 1984,
      "value": -0.373
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1983,
      "forecastYear": 1985,
      "value": -0.371
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1983,
      "forecastYear": 1986,
      "value": -0.275
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1984,
      "forecastYear": 1983,
      "value": -0.432
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1984,
      "forecastYear": 1984,
      "value": -0.363
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1984,
      "forecastYear": 1985,
      "value": -0.345
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1984,
      "forecastYear": 1986,
      "value": -0.33
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1984,
      "forecastYear": 1987,
      "value": -0.326
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1984,
      "forecastYear": 1988,
      "value": -0.267
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1984,
      "forecastYear": 1989,
      "value": -0.209
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1985,
      "forecastYear": 1984,
      "value": -0.367
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1985,
      "forecastYear": 1985,
      "value": -0.425
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1985,
      "forecastYear": 1986,
      "value": -0.336
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1985,
      "forecastYear": 1987,
      "value": -0.298
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1985,
      "forecastYear": 1988,
      "value": -0.253
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1985,
      "forecastYear": 1989,
      "value": -0.182
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1985,
      "forecastYear": 1990,
      "value": -0.135
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1986,
      "forecastYear": 1985,
      "value": -0.406
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1986,
      "forecastYear": 1986,
      "value": -0.378
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1986,
      "forecastYear": 1987,
      "value": -0.26
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1986,
      "forecastYear": 1988,
      "value": -0.164
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1986,
      "forecastYear": 1989,
      "value": -0.114
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1987,
      "forecastYear": 1986,
      "value": -0.412
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1987,
      "forecastYear": 1987,
      "value": -0.313
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1987,
      "forecastYear": 1988,
      "value": -0.189
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1987,
      "forecastYear": 1989,
      "value": -0.157
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1987,
      "forecastYear": 1990,
      "value": -0.098
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1987,
      "forecastYear": 1991,
      "value": -0.033
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1987,
      "forecastYear": 1992,
      "value": 0.019
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1988,
      "forecastYear": 1987,
      "value": -0.271
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1988,
      "forecastYear": 1988,
      "value": -0.257
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1988,
      "forecastYear": 1989,
      "value": -0.219
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1988,
      "forecastYear": 1990,
      "value": -0.166
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1988,
      "forecastYear": 1991,
      "value": -0.124
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1988,
      "forecastYear": 1992,
      "value": -0.077
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1988,
      "forecastYear": 1993,
      "value": -0.034
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1989,
      "forecastYear": 1988,
      "value": -0.272
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1989,
      "forecastYear": 1989,
      "value": -0.273
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1989,
      "forecastYear": 1990,
      "value": -0.152
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1989,
      "forecastYear": 1991,
      "value": -0.105
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1989,
      "forecastYear": 1992,
      "value": -0.049
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1989,
      "forecastYear": 1993,
      "value": -0.004
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1989,
      "forecastYear": 1994,
      "value": 0.048
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1990,
      "forecastYear": 1989,
      "value": -0.258
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1990,
      "forecastYear": 1990,
      "value": -0.203
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1990,
      "forecastYear": 1991,
      "value": -0.099
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1990,
      "forecastYear": 1992,
      "value": -0.038
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1990,
      "forecastYear": 1993,
      "value": 0.008
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1990,
      "forecastYear": 1994,
      "value": 0.015
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1990,
      "forecastYear": 1995,
      "value": 0.013
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1991,
      "forecastYear": 1990,
      "value": -0.363
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1991,
      "forecastYear": 1991,
      "value": -0.499
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1991,
      "forecastYear": 1992,
      "value": -0.424
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1991,
      "forecastYear": 1993,
      "value": -0.296
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1991,
      "forecastYear": 1994,
      "value": -0.089
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1991,
      "forecastYear": 1995,
      "value": 0.004
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1991,
      "forecastYear": 1996,
      "value": 0.027
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1992,
      "forecastYear": 1991,
      "value": -0.422
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1992,
      "forecastYear": 1992,
      "value": -0.603
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1992,
      "forecastYear": 1993,
      "value": -0.514
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1992,
      "forecastYear": 1994,
      "value": -0.306
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1992,
      "forecastYear": 1995,
      "value": -0.272
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1992,
      "forecastYear": 1996,
      "value": -0.249
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1992,
      "forecastYear": 1997,
      "value": -0.252
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1993,
      "forecastYear": 1992,
      "value": -0.438
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1993,
      "forecastYear": 1993,
      "value": -0.465
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1993,
      "forecastYear": 1994,
      "value": -0.367
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1993,
      "forecastYear": 1995,
      "value": -0.323
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1993,
      "forecastYear": 1996,
      "value": -0.258
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1993,
      "forecastYear": 1997,
      "value": -0.243
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1994,
      "forecastYear": 1993,
      "value": -0.375
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1994,
      "forecastYear": 1994,
      "value": -0.339
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1994,
      "forecastYear": 1995,
      "value": -0.232
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1994,
      "forecastYear": 1996,
      "value": -0.233
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1994,
      "forecastYear": 1997,
      "value": -0.25
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1994,
      "forecastYear": 1998,
      "value": -0.253
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1994,
      "forecastYear": 1999,
      "value": -0.238
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1995,
      "forecastYear": 1994,
      "value": -0.293
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1995,
      "forecastYear": 1995,
      "value": -0.27
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1995,
      "forecastYear": 1996,
      "value": -0.27
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1995,
      "forecastYear": 1997,
      "value": -0.286
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1995,
      "forecastYear": 1998,
      "value": -0.261
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1995,
      "forecastYear": 1999,
      "value": -0.259
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1995,
      "forecastYear": 2000,
      "value": -0.249
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1996,
      "forecastYear": 1995,
      "value": -0.23
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1996,
      "forecastYear": 1996,
      "value": -0.2
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1996,
      "forecastYear": 1997,
      "value": -0.188
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1996,
      "forecastYear": 1998,
      "value": -0.13
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1996,
      "forecastYear": 1999,
      "value": -0.084
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1996,
      "forecastYear": 2000,
      "value": -0.035
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1996,
      "forecastYear": 2001,
      "value": 0.01
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1996,
      "forecastYear": 2002,
      "value": 0.054
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1997,
      "forecastYear": 1996,
      "value": -0.147
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1997,
      "forecastYear": 1997,
      "value": -0.169
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1997,
      "forecastYear": 1998,
      "value": -0.16
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1997,
      "forecastYear": 1999,
      "value": -0.154
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1997,
      "forecastYear": 2000,
      "value": -0.112
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1997,
      "forecastYear": 2001,
      "value": -0.045
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1997,
      "forecastYear": 2002,
      "value": 0.021
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 1997,
      "value": -0.029
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 1998,
      "value": -0.013
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 1999,
      "value": 0.012
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 2000,
      "value": 0.011
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 2001,
      "value": 0.035
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 2002,
      "value": 0.11
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 2003,
      "value": 0.098
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 2004,
      "value": 0.127
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 2005,
      "value": 0.153
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 2006,
      "value": 0.178
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1998,
      "forecastYear": 2007,
      "value": 0.228
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1999,
      "forecastYear": 1998,
      "value": 0.092
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1999,
      "forecastYear": 1999,
      "value": 0.104
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1999,
      "forecastYear": 2000,
      "value": 0.15
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1999,
      "forecastYear": 2001,
      "value": 0.167
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1999,
      "forecastYear": 2002,
      "value": 0.229
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1999,
      "forecastYear": 2003,
      "value": 0.218
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 1999,
      "forecastYear": 2004,
      "value": 0.242
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 1999,
      "value": 0.165
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2000,
      "value": 0.214
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2001,
      "value": 0.23
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2002,
      "value": 0.229
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2003,
      "value": 0.221
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2004,
      "value": 0.227
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2005,
      "value": 0.241
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2006,
      "value": 0.277
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2007,
      "value": 0.308
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2008,
      "value": 0.32
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2009,
      "value": 0.334
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2000,
      "forecastYear": 2010,
      "value": 0.363
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2000,
      "value": 0.302
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2001,
      "value": 0.351
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2002,
      "value": 0.284
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2003,
      "value": 0.29
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2004,
      "value": 0.305
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2005,
      "value": 0.302
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2006,
      "value": 0.331
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2007,
      "value": 0.359
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2008,
      "value": 0.38
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2009,
      "value": 0.427
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2010,
      "value": 0.465
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2001,
      "forecastYear": 2011,
      "value": 0.519
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2002,
      "forecastYear": 2001,
      "value": 0.16
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2002,
      "forecastYear": 2002,
      "value": -0.13
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2002,
      "forecastYear": 2003,
      "value": -0.096
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2002,
      "forecastYear": 2004,
      "value": -0.016
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2002,
      "forecastYear": 2005,
      "value": 0.068
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2002,
      "forecastYear": 2006,
      "value": 0.093
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2002,
      "forecastYear": 2007,
      "value": 0.11
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2003,
      "forecastYear": 2002,
      "value": -0.194
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2003,
      "forecastYear": 2003,
      "value": -0.364
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2003,
      "forecastYear": 2004,
      "value": -0.357
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2003,
      "forecastYear": 2005,
      "value": -0.233
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2003,
      "forecastYear": 2006,
      "value": -0.218
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2003,
      "forecastYear": 2007,
      "value": -0.188
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2003,
      "forecastYear": 2008,
      "value": -0.193
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2004,
      "forecastYear": 2003,
      "value": -0.452
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2004,
      "forecastYear": 2004,
      "value": -0.606
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2004,
      "forecastYear": 2005,
      "value": -0.409
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2004,
      "forecastYear": 2006,
      "value": -0.29
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2004,
      "forecastYear": 2007,
      "value": -0.254
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2004,
      "forecastYear": 2008,
      "value": -0.243
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2004,
      "forecastYear": 2009,
      "value": -0.241
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2005,
      "forecastYear": 2004,
      "value": -0.48
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2005,
      "forecastYear": 2005,
      "value": -0.479
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2005,
      "forecastYear": 2006,
      "value": -0.423
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2005,
      "forecastYear": 2007,
      "value": -0.329
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2005,
      "forecastYear": 2008,
      "value": -0.255
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2005,
      "forecastYear": 2009,
      "value": -0.237
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2005,
      "forecastYear": 2010,
      "value": -0.207
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2006,
      "forecastYear": 2005,
      "value": -0.357
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2006,
      "forecastYear": 2006,
      "value": -0.458
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2006,
      "forecastYear": 2007,
      "value": -0.373
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2006,
      "forecastYear": 2008,
      "value": -0.227
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2006,
      "forecastYear": 2009,
      "value": -0.211
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2006,
      "forecastYear": 2010,
      "value": -0.183
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2006,
      "forecastYear": 2011,
      "value": -0.202
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2007,
      "forecastYear": 2006,
      "value": -0.269
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2007,
      "forecastYear": 2007,
      "value": -0.257
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2007,
      "forecastYear": 2008,
      "value": -0.24
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2007,
      "forecastYear": 2009,
      "value": -0.19
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2007,
      "forecastYear": 2010,
      "value": -0.094
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2007,
      "forecastYear": 2011,
      "value": -0.053
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2007,
      "forecastYear": 2012,
      "value": 0.059
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2008,
      "forecastYear": 2007,
      "value": -0.17
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2008,
      "forecastYear": 2008,
      "value": -0.417
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2008,
      "forecastYear": 2009,
      "value": -0.414
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2008,
      "forecastYear": 2010,
      "value": -0.16
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2008,
      "forecastYear": 2011,
      "value": -0.094
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2008,
      "forecastYear": 2012,
      "value": 0.047
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2008,
      "forecastYear": 2013,
      "value": 0.028
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2008,
      "value": -0.467
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2009,
      "value": -1.781
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2010,
      "value": -1.171
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2011,
      "value": -0.899
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2012,
      "value": -0.563
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2013,
      "value": -0.507
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2014,
      "value": -0.532
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2015,
      "value": -0.534
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2016,
      "value": -0.573
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2017,
      "value": -0.562
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2018,
      "value": -0.551
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2009,
      "forecastYear": 2019,
      "value": -0.607
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2009,
      "value": -1.436
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2010,
      "value": -1.556
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2011,
      "value": -1.25
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2012,
      "value": -0.803
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2013,
      "value": -0.692
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2014,
      "value": -0.659
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2015,
      "value": -0.689
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2016,
      "value": -0.7
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2017,
      "value": -0.688
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2018,
      "value": -0.682
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2019,
      "value": -0.775
    },
    {
      "budgetYear": 2010,
      "forecastYear": 2020,
      "value": -0.841
    }
  ],
  "meta": {
    "title": "US Budget Forecast vs Actual Surplus/Deficit - Free Download",
    "description": "US federal budget surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP, pairing each budget year's actual outcome against the forecast made in that same year (1980–2015), showing systematic optimism bias in official projections. Contains 230 records. Download in Excel, CSV, PDF formats.",
    "seo_title": "US Budget Forecast vs Actual Surplus/Deficit | ListBase",
    "seo_description": "Download US Budget Forecast vs Actual Surplus/Deficit — 230 records. Available in Excel, CSV, PDF formats.",
    "key_takeaways": [
      "Contains 230 records / 3 fields",
      "Available for free download in Excel, CSV, and PDF formats",
      "Data sourced from: https://github.com/vega/vega-datasets"
    ]
  }
}